India and the United States may finalise a large trade deal within the first year of Donald Trump’s second term as President, but the negotiations will be challenging, according to Mark Linscott, Senior Advisor (Trade) and former assistant US trade representative.
Linscott expressed confidence that the two nations would reach a significant deal despite potential hurdles. “I think it will be a challenging negotiation. There will be double tides. There may be some disruption. There likely will be threats of tariffs or even new tariffs. It will be complicated, and that’s true of many trade negotiations, but I do think that they will conclude with a quite large trade deal, and perhaps even in the first year of the Trump administration,” he said.
One of the biggest challenges in the India-US trade relationship has been the unpredictability of Trump’s tariff policies. Linscott acknowledged this, saying that every day under Trump’s leadership brings new questions and possible tariff announcements.
He added “It’s very unpredictable. We met over the weekend. The announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminium is built on tariffs that were implied in the first Trump administration. Frankly, I don’t know if those will have a limited impact on India,” he said. However, Linscott highlighted that Trump has also spoken about imposing reciprocal tariffs in the near future, which could have significant implications for India. “I think those are the ones to watch. Those are the ones that could have specific impacts on India,” he noted.
Despite these challenges, Linscott remains optimistic about the India-US trade relationship. He described it as a “bull market” with great potential for growth. He also suggested that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ongoing visit to the US could play a crucial role in shaping trade negotiations. “I think that during Prime Minister Modi’s visit, the two sides will agree to start a big negotiation covering a full range of trade issues,” he said. While challenges remain, Linscott’s remarks indicate that both nations are moving towards a more comprehensive and ambitious trade partnership in the coming years.
