Hoping the US egg crisis will end soon? Australia’s example suggests it won’t be over easy.

• Australia is facing similar egg shortages to the US due to bird flu and industry shifts.
• Sales have been rationed in some stores since June.
• Egg production recovery is slow, taking upwards of six months.

More than six months after some Australian stores restricted the sale of eggs, some shelves are still empty.

As US consumers start to feel the same pinch, Australia’s example could show such shortages don’t end fast.

This week, multiple US stores, including Costco, Whole Foods, and Trader Joe’s, began limiting the number of cartons customers could buy.

It’s not unfamiliar to Australians. In June last year, the chains Coles and Woolworths began limiting egg-carton purchases to two per shopper.

As of January, supermarkets were still limiting sales, some shelves were bare, and the industry body Egg Farmers of Australia noted a “lower supply.”

The causes have much in common with the US.

1) Avian influenza — albeit different strains — in both cases wipes out some 7% of the national flock.

2) Demand went up over the holidays, further pressuring supplies.

3) A long-term trend away from caged birds’ eggs toward barn-laid or free-range.

That resulted in a 11.5% price spike in Australia last year — steep, but pretty minor compared to the 65% hike in the US.

If Australia’s seven-month egg shortage is anything to go by, US consumers could be waiting a while to get easy access to eggs again.

Australia is looking at several months before egg production returns to normal while it repopulates its flocks, even after its government declared its bird flu outbreak over.

Emily Burton, a professor in sustainable food production who focuses on poultry at the UK’s Nottingham Trent University, told BI that it takes around six months from losing a flock to getting back to full-throttle egg production.

With US officials still reporting sporadic outbreaks in commercial flocks as recently as Friday, supply chains may remain scrambled for some time yet.